Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
Stock market is gearing up for an eventful week ahead where key triggers such as quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and the upcoming Union Budget for 2026-27 would grab the limelight, analysts said.
Gold and silver prices are poised to maintain their record-setting rally in the coming week as investors focus on global inflation data and key macroeconomic indicators that shape central bank policy paths, analysts said.
FPIs net sold equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion in 2025 -- the highest annual net sale on record.
The Indian rupee, swaying through multiple headwinds, tiding over global trade disruptions and massive foreign fund outlfows, is unlikely to arrest its descent until tariff impact overhangs, notwithstanding robust domestic macroeconomic tailwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which sees the rupee's depreciation as a silver bullet to offset the tariff shock, expects the currency to find its stable course once India reaches a trade deal with its largest trading partner, the US.
These investors have pumped in about Rs 6,900 crore (Rs 69 billion) in the seven trading sessions after the Federal Open Market Commission meet.
'As long as Sebi maintains transparency and market stability, the Jane Street episode is unlikely to deter long-term foreign capital.'
From the 30-share pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Eternal, Power Grid, ITC, Tata Motors, Asian Paints and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers. Among the laggards, Kotak Mahindra Bank tanked 4.57 per cent
India was being evaluated for a potential weight of around 1 per cent in the index, an allocation that could have translated into $25 billion of inflows, spread over roughly 10 months.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the central bank does not target any band for the rupee in the forex market, and allows the domestic currency to find its own correct level.
Foreign investment in bonds issued by Indian corporates touched a 10-year high in May at 20,996 crore, driven by $3.35 billion fundraise by the Shapoorji Pallonji (SP) group, which saw infusion from Deutsche Bank, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Davidson Kempner, and Cerberus Capital, among others. The SP group sold three-year bonds, offering 19.75 per cent yield compounded annually and payable at maturity.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
Importers are rushing to hedge their dollar positions amid the sharp depreciation of the rupee against the American currency and expectations of further volatility even as exporters are holding off after suffering mark-to-market (MTM) losses on earlier hedges.
Markets regulator Sebi will soon set up a working group to undertake a comprehensive review of short selling and the Securities Lending and Borrowing (SLB) frameworks, its chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said on Friday. The framework for short selling, introduced in 2007, has largely remained unchanged since its inception.
From the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Nestle, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were the biggest gainers. However, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, HDFC Bank, Maruti, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, ITC, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the biggest laggards. NTPC, Adani Ports, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel and IndusInd Bank were among the gainers.
Sanjay Malhotra has made structural changes to banking regulation to bring down costs and increase efficiency. Plus, he kicked off a benign interest regime. But there are challenges ahead.
From the 30 Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank plunged over 18.50 per cent after the firm reported a 40 per cent decline in September quarter net profit at Rs 1,331 crore, pulled down by concerns over its asset quality. Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Maruti, Bajaj Finance and Titan were also among the laggards.
The strong domestic flow offset selling by foreign portfolio investors who pulled out $23.3 billion (Rs 2.03 trillion) from domestic equity markets in CY25.
The Indian government has expressed its disagreement with the IMF staff's 'baseline' assumption that the 50 per cent US tariffs on its goods exports 'would remain in place indefinitely', based on which the staff pegged the country's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent this year, and pared its 2026-27 projection by 20 basis points to 6.2 per cent.
'The net inflows into MF schemes may also have been lower last month, with investors booking profit and taking a more measured approach amid elevated valuations.'
Trading sentiment in the equity market will be guided by macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and quarterly earnings from IT major TCS this week, analysts said. Stock markets would also be tracking trading activity of foreign investors who remained net sellers of Indian equities in September.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, Nestle, Bharti Airtel, UltraTech Cement, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. In contrast, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and State Bank of India were among the gainers.
'Defence, capital goods, engineering, capital market-related stocks, autos, and cement sectors are my bullish bets for Samvat 2082.'
After a year of modest returns, equity investors may anticipate gains of 10-15 per cent in Samvat 2082, which began on October 21. Although valuations have moderated from their peaks a year earlier, they remain above long-term averages, potentially limiting sharp upsides.
'Other sectors that manage the savings pools of Indians are giving tough competition to life insurance companies.'
Among the Sensex firms, Titan, Asian Paints, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, Bajaj Finserv and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers. In contrast, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, HCL Technology, State Bank of India and ICICI Bank were the laggards.
'A balanced portfolio mix of domestic and international equity, fixed income, and precious metals is recommended.'
Equity benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled nearly 700 points to sink below the 79,000 level on Tuesday, extending its losses for the second straight day due to selling pressure in HDFC Bank, SBI and ITC amid fresh foreign capital outflows. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 692.89 points or 0.87 per cent to settle at 78,956.03. During the day, it tanked 759.54 points or 0.95 per cent to 78,889.38.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
DIIs owned equities worth Rs 73.5 trillion, just 1.9 per cent less than FPIs. This marks a significant change from a decade ago.
Sensex sinks 573 pts on global tensions and high crude prices
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the exchange rate policy has remained consistent over the years and the central bank does not target any 'specific level or band' of the rupee, which slipped to an all-time low of 87.59 to a US dollar. On Thursday, the rupee plunged 16 paise to close at a record low of 87.59 against the American currency. "I would like to mention here that the Reserve Bank's exchange rate policy has remained consistent over the years.
The interplay between domestic and foreign capital will shape India's equity markets.
Indian rupee slipping below the record 88 level against the US dollar will enhance price competitiveness of Indian products in global markets and help exporters diversify beyond the US market, say exporters. However, import-dependent sectors such as gems and jewellery, petroleum and electronics may see lower benefits due to a rise in input costs, they stated.
Foreign investors withdrew Rs 10,355 crore from the country's equity markets in the last four trading sessions this month due to sweeping tariffs imposed by the US on most nations, including India. The outflow occurred after a net investment of Rs 30,927 crore in the six trading sessions from March 21 to March 28. This infusion helped reduce the overall outflow for March to Rs 3,973 crore, according to data from the depositories.
Titan, HCL Tech and State Bank of India were also among the laggards. However, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, HDFC Bank and ITC were the gainers.
Foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around $11.2 billion) from the Indian stock market in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of Chinese stocks. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024.
To shield against US President Donald Trump's tariff shock, analysts have been advising investors to focus on stocks of domestic-oriented companies, rather than export-centric ones, to minimise potential losses.
